Climate change: A game changer for the Bay Program
After decades of research and, more recently, advocacy, it
probably isn’t news to learn that the earth’s climate is changing. Legions of scientists have documented a wide
range of changes that can be directly and indirectly attributed to human
activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases. These gases are heat trapping by-products of
the combustion of fossil fuels. The
question is, what does this global problem have to do with the Chesapeake Bay?
A new report from the Bay Program’s Scientific and Technical Advisory
Committee (STAC) examines this question. (Download the full
report in PDF.) The report reflects the combined efforts of two
coordinating editors and 11 contributing authors that represent more than a
dozen organizations. The team concluded
that climate change is more than a future threat to the Bay – it is an issue
with immediate consequences for today’s restoration and protection decisions. Climate change is likely to bring warmer air
and warmer temperatures to the region, accelerate sea level rise, and potentially
change seasonal precipitation patterns. These
changes have the potential to exacerbate current stresses on the Bay ecosystem
and complicate or potentially undermine restoration efforts.
For example, a changing climate may:
- Alter
the flow of pollutants into the Bay and their impact on water quality and
living resources.
- Challenge
the performance of environmental monitoring programs intended to measure
success and guide regulatory processes.
- Compromise
the effectiveness of restoration strategies, such as those described in
the Tributary
Strategies.
- Require
changes in the design of regulatory programs, such as TMDLs.
These changes mean that the Bay Program will need to
anticipate and adapt to changing conditions to achieve its goals of protecting
and restoring water quality and living resources. It is essential to recognize that the need to
respond effectively to changing conditions is not a new requirement – it is an existing
responsibility based on the Bay Program’s mandates and authorities. This means that Bay Program partners can and
should take immediate action to include consideration for climate change in
important management and policy decisions.
The STAC team concluded the report with a number of specific
recommendations for next steps for the Bay Program, including:
- Creating
a high-level climate change champion charged with identifying
opportunities to address climate change within existing authorities and
existing resources.
- Developing
and deploying new strategies to accelerate consideration of climate change
in public and private sector decision making.
- Prioritizing
and aggressively pursuing targeted research and development to address
specific implementation issues and strengthen the foundation of knowledge
about the impact of climate change on the Bay.
In other words, the Bay Program needs to make climate change
someone’s job and empower that individual to use existing authorities and
resources to anticipate and prepare for changing climatic conditions. With this person in place, the Bay Program
can begin to work with the STAC and other advisors and stakeholders to develop
strategies to help protect and restore the Bay under changing conditions. At times, this will require focused research
and development, and the Bay Program should help ensure that needs are clearly
communicated and that resources are made available to support the work that
needs to be done.
The bottom line of the report is clear: the Bay’s climate is
changing and this will have significant implications for the mission of the Bay
Program and the future of the Chesapeake Bay. It is incumbent on the Bay Program to take
action to anticipate and adapt to changing conditions to ensure that efforts to
protect and restore the Bay will be successful under future conditions.